Young Transatlantic Initiative https://yti-us.org Mon, 22 Jun 2020 04:04:43 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.9 All Talk and No Action – Germany’s Unwillingness to Contribute to NATO https://yti-us.org/2019/04/04/nato-70/ https://yti-us.org/2019/04/04/nato-70/#respond Thu, 04 Apr 2019 13:07:09 +0000 https://yti-us.org/?p=432 This April 4th, NATO celebrates its 70th anniversary – and Germany offers a sobering present by maybe being able to spend 1.5% of its GDP by 2024 on defense after having promised to spend 2.0% by that time. But wait – that was the situation in mid-2018 when even this blatant refusal of following terms one […]

Der Beitrag All Talk and No Action – Germany’s Unwillingness to Contribute to NATO erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
This April 4th, NATO celebrates its 70th anniversary – and Germany offers a sobering present by maybe being able to spend 1.5% of its GDP by 2024 on defense after having promised to spend 2.0% by that time. But wait – that was the situation in mid-2018 when even this blatant refusal of following terms one had agreed to in 2014 was considered a radical hike in defense spending. Doesn’t that say it all?

Unfortunately, no. Just as NATO is about to turn 70, Germany will reduce its commitment once more, stating that spending will reach 1.25% by 2023. Does Germany simply lack the funds? No – and that is why the federal budget will see a 1.7% hike to total spending of $412 billion. Major parts of the German government are able, yet unwilling, to contribute adequately to common defense.

Let’s get the facts straightened out: Instead of focusing on the matter at hand, significant parts of the German public, fueled by foul-mouthed politicians and magazines with an increasingly un-transatlantic agenda, lash out at the U.S. Ambassador to Germany for stating what the German parliamentary military commissioner says, too: Germany is not contributing sufficiently. Neither transatlantic, nor European partners can count on Germany right now.

Failing Both NATO and EU Commitments

Still, while more and more Germans feel like they “should not be pushed into increased defense spending by the Americans”, Germans ought to recall that the same promise they made to its NATO allies has been made to its European allies within the framework of Article 42 of the Treaty on European Union:

“Member States shall undertake progressively to improve their military capabilities.”

It’s that simple. Common defense has traditionally been something that was organized under NATO’s umbrella. While even the TEU points out that NATO is the organization where common defense is realized, those who criticize the ambassadorial statements must come to terms with the fact that their push for increased European cooperation is pointless as long as Germany fails to contribute in military terms.

Otherwise, German membership in the EU would slowly deteriorate into a role that would resemble the same cherry-picking attitude that one condemns the British for. At the same time, they lack the British honesty to say that they are simply not interested in participating in significant sectors of an ever closer union.

How to Spend 2.0% and Still Render Armed Forces Inoperable

Pointing out the fact that Germany is not fulfilling its promises on defense spending regularly triggers a response that features the – likely correct – statement that if one were to add development aid efforts, Germany would actually exceed the 2.0% promised. That is a very creative take on NATO’s 3 C’s of burden-sharing (cash, capabilities, contributions) – and it is a wrong one.

Not only does this point of view fail to take into account the fact that it is in Germany’s own interest to maintain armed forces that are capable of defending the country as required under Art. 87a of the Basic Law, it would, in addition, allow for a situation in which countries could claim that they followed the promise of increasing their contributions while ignoring that a significant share of their defense materiel is inoperable. That would contradict any trace of bona fide left.

Interestingly, the 2.0% spending goal is not a mutual promise made for the first time in 2014: NATO member countries agreed in 2002 already that they would increase their respective defense spending to 2.0%.

Why Criticizing the 2.0 Percent Goal Is the Wrong Way

Supporters of Germany spending more than 1.25% on its defense capabilities could refer to the Wales Summit declaration over and over again, consistently pointing out that promises were made that must now be kept. Still, let us choose a different way and ask ourselves whether an approach that follows the second “C” – capabilities – would result in Germany actually abiding by its obligations.

What about military mobility? The goal of enabling NATO forces to cross through Germany swiftly to reach the area of engagement? It took four months to find German railcars to get American equipment from Bulgaria back to Germany. What about the “Four Thirties” concept according to which NATO members should be able to move, among others, 30 battalions to the zone of engagement within thirty days? According to a RAND Corporation study, Germany only has two battalions with the necessary modern equipment that would make them worthy of facing the Russians. Mobilizing one battalion would require a week or more – moving it to its place of deployment would pose a completely new challenge.

Regardless of whether Germany tries to abide by the 2.0% promise, its watered-down 1.5% commitment or at least a meaningful contribution to the Four Thirties concept, the country is currently unable to fulfill any single of these commitments. Criticizing the 2.0% goal in this situation must seem grotesque to Germany’s allies.

Has Defense Become a Taboo Issue?

Instead of asking why its American allies have become increasingly unhappy with the German approach towards defense policy, parts of the public complain about the Ambassador having mentioned this unhappiness. After all, how dare he interfere in what they consider domestic issues?

By pledging to help its allies upon necessity, Germany agrees that defense is an issue that other countries have a stake in as well. Fittingly, 63% of Germans have a favorable view of NATO. At the same time, however, 53% think that Germany should not use military force to defend any ally that were to find itself in an armed conflict with Russia. It seems that the majority of Germans would like to reap the benefits of NATO membership while keeping its contributions as low as possible.

One reason for this may very well be the fact that it is the United States who push for an increase in German military expenditures. Choosing a deliberately uncooperative approach, German politicians imply that defense spending is inseparably connected to President Trump, thus acting as if any support for increased defense spending translated into support for the President. Despite the fact that any such statement ignores the responsibility that Germany agreed to bear for the well-being and sovereignty of all other allies, it is a fact that may not simply be disregarded by those who would like to see Germany make a step towards contributing its fair share.

America Will Not Let Europe Down

While the United States push for increased contributions for more than a decade, they will not let Europe down. American support for NATO is higher than in Germany – and two thirds of Americans approve of military support for allies who find themselves under attack. German failure to act upon justified requests will, however, lead to the center of gravity in defense move further eastward.

With more and more countries actually getting closer to spending what they promised to spend, Germany will find itself increasingly isolated from its allies – especially its European ones who counted on the 2002 and 2014 promises. Now, given the fact that nothing speaks in favor of the United States reducing its commitment to European defense, what is at stake for Germany?

The transatlantic partnership as a whole is in peril. Failure not only to uphold promises made, but to appreciate a partner’s valuable contribution is what lets the pillars on which this partnership has been carefully constructed after World War II erode. If Germany wants to act as a strong participant in a world of multilateralism, it needs to help renovate these pillars.

America is doing her fair share by contributing more than 3.5% of its GDP on defense – and while major parts of the amounts spent do not directly translate into the defense of European soil, American contributions to security in Asia are just as valuable for Europe. Europeans have, naturally, significant interest in a Western partner upholding the rule of law in an area where an autocracy tries to push its neighbors into submission more and more openly.

What is the Alternative?

With more and more Germans choosing a confrontative approach towards the United States, what’s the alternative to American contributions to German security? Who provides nuclear protection? How much more than 2.0% of its GDP would Germany have to spend to replace 32,000 Americans and their fighting strength?

The alternative to spending 2.0% is not spending 1.25% – it is, in fact, spending more than 2.0%. With the majority of Germans supporting NATO, a case must be made by German politicians in favor of contributing an objectively fair share. Any alternative would upset the relationship with Germany’s most important ally in defense – and would prompt the question of how to ensure nuclear deterrence in an era that sees the re-emergence of medium-range ballistic missiles.

Image source: U.S. Department of State


Lukas Posch is President of the Young Transatlantic Initiative – this statement constitutes a personal opinion and does not necessarily match the Initiative’s view.

Der Beitrag All Talk and No Action – Germany’s Unwillingness to Contribute to NATO erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2019/04/04/nato-70/feed/ 0
Venezuela: Give Regime Change A Chance https://yti-us.org/2019/03/25/venezuela-give-regime-change-a-chance/ https://yti-us.org/2019/03/25/venezuela-give-regime-change-a-chance/#respond Mon, 25 Mar 2019 19:57:03 +0000 https://yti-us.org/?p=429 Just about two months ago, I covered Venezuela’s current affairs. What caused this was the suddenly sprouting glimmer of hope that pointed towards a change in direction in a country governed by socialists and affected more and more severely by famines and diseases. While these tragedies barely make it into German-speaking media, the legitimate election […]

Der Beitrag Venezuela: Give Regime Change A Chance erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
Just about two months ago, I covered Venezuela’s current affairs. What caused this was the suddenly sprouting glimmer of hope that pointed towards a change in direction in a country governed by socialists and affected more and more severely by famines and diseases. While these tragedies barely make it into German-speaking media, the legitimate election of President and opposition leader Juan Guaidó was something that could not be ignored any longer. Thus, Junge Welt, a left-wing extremist newspaper that is under surveillance by the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (German domestic intelligence agency) had to declare their point of view – and they considered what was going on an American coup d’état in Caracas.

So, what does the situation two months later look like? Did mean imperialists manage to push the bus-driver-turned-dictator away from power? Are there American troops deployed in Venezuela? No – and Vice President Pence made this clear very early: Restoring democracy would be a goal that one would try to reach through economic and diplomatic isolation.

To ease the ever-worsening situation of Venezuela’s populace, international aid convoys were sent – but instead of receiving the goods they brought and, thus, helping people who lost an average 25 lbs of weight due to the severe scarcity of food in 2017 alone, those who were waiting for the convoys to cross the border were attacked with tear gas and rubber bullets. Now, you are obviously not able to find details regarding this in junge Welt – while they raised their voices openly against the use of rubber bullets just some years ago, they are not mentioned at all in the newspaper’s ideology-driven “fact check”.

Diplomatic pressure alone is insufficient!

What is a fact, however, is that there is a major exertion of foreign influence happening. While the United States keep working on a diplomatic solution, one of Dictator Maduro’s last remaining allies brings the big guns. Why, after all, govern through law when you can do the same through the military? It would, by the way, not be the first time that Maduro hands his people the decision between votes and bullets.

Thus, it was only a question of time until the Russian allies who constitute one of the South American dictator’s few remaining columns on which his autocracy is based would deploy troops in Venezuela. While they only brought 100 soldiers last Saturday, the aircraft used allow for completely different means of combat as well – such as tanks.

All signs indicate that the domestic crisis becomes aggravated more and more, and power outages that last several days and that affect hospitals as well make it clear that a populace is being left to its own fate – which has, according to the kleptocrats in government, been chosen by the people.

Russian troops have already been deployed…

More than two months ago, I stated that this was a call to action for President Trump. Gladly, John Bolton stated that “we are not afraid to use the word Monroe Doctrine.” Yes, it makes sense for U.S. foreign policy to gather a coalition as large as possible consisting of Central American and South American countries that exert pressure together.

At the same time, a situation that sees Venezuela’s people clearly unable to help itself while innocent people die from curable diseases every single day and while torture is happening in secret prisons with Cuban support requires more than just diplomatic pressure. Just like so often, the United Nations appear unable to take the task as Russia and the People’s Republic of China veto any attempt at the UNSC to initiate an internationally supported attempt to solve the issue.

…so what are we waiting for?

Those who uphold their categorical denial of any military intervention after having been exposed to this avoidable humanitarian crisis either do not care at all or do not consider the situation serious enough yet. What is denigrated as regime change has allowed for the return of positive outcomes and the successful implementation of democracy in Japan, Central Europe and Eastern Europe.

Much to the opposite, keeping a military option alive increases the effect of diplomatic and economic sanctions imposed that would otherwise be completely insufficient. While the Cold War may have ended, Moscow and Beijing maintain their unbroken desire for a sphere of influence.

Foreign Minister Maas must be true to his words

Such a sphere must not be tolerated – neither in Europe nor in Central America or South America. Tolerating it would equal ignoring the legitimate intentions of a country’s government and populace – just because it was possible. The Venezuelan people’s intention is clear – remove the dictator. This desire is reflected in both countless demonstrations with thousands of participants and the massive migratory movement that was triggered by the dictatorship’s wrongful policies.

Those who consider the Monroe Doctrine an attempt to create American hegemony have not just been exposed to Noam Chomsky for too long – they also omit the fact that the question of how to allow for the development of better living conditions in freedom for millions of people answers itself once people are granted dignity and autonomy. What should give us hope for the coming weeks is the fact that it is the United States that represents these values like no other country in the world.

Maybe even Germany manages to take a stand for once and to play a role in helping the much-beloved system of multilateralism survive. Let’s stay real: There will not be any German support for any international coalition – but as German journalists are imprisoned and diplomats are kicked out of the country as personae non gratae, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas must be true to his words and must help stop Maduro from extending this crisis indefinitely.


Lukas Posch serves as President of the Young Transatlantic Initiative. His opinion does not necessarily reflect the Initiative’s opinion as a whole. You can find the German version of this article at our new project Transatlantic Takes.

Der Beitrag Venezuela: Give Regime Change A Chance erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2019/03/25/venezuela-give-regime-change-a-chance/feed/ 0
Young Security Policy on an International Stage https://yti-us.org/2019/03/09/young-security-policy-on-an-international-stage/ https://yti-us.org/2019/03/09/young-security-policy-on-an-international-stage/#respond Sat, 09 Mar 2019 16:21:14 +0000 https://yti-us.org/?p=417 Twenty-five participants. Four days. Three side events within the framework of the Munich Security Conference (MSC). As our Young Transatlantic Initiative entered into its fourth round of hosting a program in the course of the probably most important gathering of security experts world-wide, not only did we join forces with the Munich Security Conference Foundation […]

Der Beitrag Young Security Policy on an International Stage erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
Twenty-five participants. Four days. Three side events within the framework of the Munich Security Conference (MSC). As our Young Transatlantic Initiative entered into its fourth round of hosting a program in the course of the probably most important gathering of security experts world-wide, not only did we join forces with the Munich Security Conference Foundation in many ways for the first time, we also saw more participants than ever before. With three high-level panel events around the topics of NATO Defense Contributions: Is Germany Stepping Up?, Digital Diplomacy – A Canadian Perspective as well as Germany and the UNSC: More Than Just Good Intentions?, we enabled members and the general public to find out more about current affairs of transatlantic importance. In addition, our members were able to participate in several events hosted by partner organizations.

Who Will Pick up the Pieces? – Three in-depth discussions

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben Hodges discussing with our audience

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben Hodges discussing with our audience

This year’s security conference was centered around the possible failure of the system of multilateralism – thus, “The Great Puzzle: Who will pick up the pieces?” may very well be deemed a fitting question. Our events served its part in solving this question. At the Office of the Permanent Representative of Québec, we gathered insights into the digitalization of international relations. Together with Florian Kling, former press officer of the German Federal Armed Forces, and Alicia Wanless, doctoral researcher at King’s College, London, we were able to discuss this topic in a relaxed atmosphere that invited participants to ask detailed questions. Which developments do happen and how do they influence digital communications? Mrs. Wanless, who is intensively researching this topic, supported her statements by showing several examples that indicated not only a change in rapidity, but also an increasing lack of diplomatic protocol. Mr. Kling gave insights from a more defense-oriented point of view pointing out the difficulty of finding appropriate answers to (intentional) fake news in digital media. Both panelists agreed that the public sector is required to step up its efforts to maintain pace with technological development – more research in digital communications is clearly necessary.

Panelists Florian Kling and Alicia Wanless with Robin Arens

Panelists Florian Kling and Alicia Wanless with Robin Arens

For the next two years, Germany will be a nonpermanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Still, Germany seems indecisive quite often in international affairs. Together with Tim Richter, a journalist and member of the board of the German United Nations Society, and Theresa Lütkefend, research assistant at the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Berlin, we tackled perspectives and problems that come with Germany’s temporary membership in the United Nations’ most influential body. It became clear quite quickly that Germany is highly unlikely to change its traditionally cautious course. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas already set foci – these shall be arms export control, climate change and women in conflict regions. While these topics do not trigger any surprise in many observers, they are clearly niche topics that allow for broad majorities. From our panelists’ points of view, such an agenda is workable as it plays into Germany’s strengths in development policy and sustainable development. In addition, discussing these topics in the UNSC may as well foster discussion among other UN bodies. Of course, the question of how the United Nations as a whole may be reformed was asked by several members of the audience – while there is little to no chance that any change will happen over the next years, European foreign policy may very well see changes.

More than 130 guests and a program full of variety

Young Transatlanticists with our NATO Panelists

While our discussions around the United Nations and digital policy served as great explorations into current affairs, our program’s main discussion was centered around German responsibility within NATO. To discuss this important question of transatlantic cooperation, we were joined by Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the United States Army Europe, Brigadier General (Ret.) Dr. Erich Vad, former military policy adviser to the Chancellor, and Dr. Christian Mölling, Director at the German Council on Foreign Relations. While our UNSC panel saw the panelists acknowledge German security policy, our largest discussion held quite some criticism directed at Germany’s policy. Instead of debating the defense spending goal of two per cent of each NATO member’s GDP alone, participants saw a discussion that was centered around a realist approach: Germany must step up its defense efforts regardless of whether expenditure reaches 1.8%, 2.0% or any other amount as long as such increase turns the country into a capable NATO ally. Dr. Mölling and Brigadier General Dr. Vad furthermore pointed out that the German public has treated security policy as a relic of the Cold War for the last years – yet, current developments in Ukraine and Syria show that this was a fallacy. Still, Germany is a valuable ally of the United States – thus, Lieutenant General Hodges pointed out that Germany is for good reason the “most important ally of the United States”.

We look back at a very successful weekend that did not only see young transatlanticists gather – in addition to our members, we were able to welcome around 130 interested members of the public. Full of anticipation, we are looking forward to hosting our nest MSC weekend where we would like to welcome many more of you! Finally, we would like to cordially thank the Québec Government’s Representation in Munich and the Amerikahaus München – Bavarian Center for Transatlantic Relations for their great cooperation and for having allowed us to use their premises for the discussions.

Der Beitrag Young Security Policy on an International Stage erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2019/03/09/young-security-policy-on-an-international-stage/feed/ 0
Young Transatlanticists at #MSC2019 https://yti-us.org/2019/02/11/young-transatlanticists-at-msc2019/ https://yti-us.org/2019/02/11/young-transatlanticists-at-msc2019/#respond Mon, 11 Feb 2019 16:34:35 +0000 https://yti-us.org/?p=408 As the Soviet Union was collapsing, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed “The End of History” in the late 1980s: Western-style democracies featuring freedom of speech and a free market economy would reach a point at which they permanently defeated socialism. Thirty years later, the situation around the globe is a very different one and, thus, it comes […]

Der Beitrag Young Transatlanticists at #MSC2019 erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
As the Soviet Union was collapsing, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed “The End of History” in the late 1980s: Western-style democracies featuring freedom of speech and a free market economy would reach a point at which they permanently defeated socialism. Thirty years later, the situation around the globe is a very different one and, thus, it comes to no surprise that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists put their doomsday clock to two minutes to midnight in 2018, citing numerous smoldering or active conflicts.
Even in the age of complete digitalization of all areas of life, such complex diplomatic challenges may only be solved when deciders meet. Following this ideal, the Munich Security Conference gathers for the 55th time in order to discuss the urgent issues of our time – this year, with an extraordinary focus on the trans-Atlantic relationship.
Not just the United States’ delegation is bigger than ever – the Young Transatlantic Initiative sees its highest number of young professional members gather for our fourth Munich Security Conference weekend. Special attention has been given to three panel discussions organized by our Initiative in co-operation with the Munich Security Conference foundation as Side Events. For the first time, we are looking forward to hosting many external guests who are cordially invited to sign up through the respective links below to our events:

NATO Defense Contributions: Is Germany Stepping up?

Friday, February 15, 1:00 PM, at Amerikahaus München – Bavarian Center for Transatlantic Relations

Following the end of the Cold War, NATO’s scope of tasks has strongly moved away from the traditional threat scenario as new challenges arose. This move also affected the ability of member countries to defend themselves. Together with an unwillingness to assume responsibility in matters of security policy, Germany’s so-called Friedensdividende (peacetime dividend) prepared the field for insufficient defense spending and American criticism aimed at this issue. Is Germany’s contribution to international security to be measured in defense spending alone, though? Is there a European solution facilitating increases in security without spending more?

Sign up here

 

Digital Diplomacy: A Canadian Perspective

Friday, February 15, 4:00 PM, at the General Delegation of the Government of Québec

Digitalization of society affects all areas of life and work – this includes the work performed by diplomats and governments as well. What do Facebook, Twitter, and blogs mean to their daily efforts on an international level? Assumptions regarding alleged manipulation around the U.S. Presidential Elections 2016 and leaked data from leading German politicians at the beginning of 2019 showed clearly that the digitalization of political matters for diplomacy, elections, and democratic discourse, in general, brings significant risks. We take a look at Canada where federal elections are happening in late 2019. Which chances and risks come with an increase in digitalization? Who is addressed by social media foreign policy and how?

Sign up here

 

Germany and the UNSC: More Than Just Good Intentions?

Saturday, February 16, 1:00 PM, at Amerikahaus München – Bavarian Center for Transatlantic Relations

Once more, Germany is a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council in 2019 and 2020. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas considers the Federal Republic capable of taking on more responsibility in international issues – how is this role supposed to be filled, though? Furthermore, the objective of granting the EU permanent membership in the UNSC might lead to conflicts of interest. In addition, points of view are shifting when it comes to the UNSC. The United States did not manage to reach a solution for humanitarian crises such as the one in Yemen with the support of the UNSC. At the same time, established democracies such as Canada strive for membership, attempting to pursue their diplomatic concepts.

Sign up here

 

Der Beitrag Young Transatlanticists at #MSC2019 erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2019/02/11/young-transatlanticists-at-msc2019/feed/ 0
6DegreesBRLN – An Inclusive Society is no Utopian Dream https://yti-us.org/2018/12/10/6degreesbrln-an-inclusive-society-is-no-utopian-dream/ https://yti-us.org/2018/12/10/6degreesbrln-an-inclusive-society-is-no-utopian-dream/#respond Mon, 10 Dec 2018 09:59:36 +0000 https://yti-us.org/?p=405 Having been invited by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC), several members of the Young Transatlantic Initiative (YTI / IjT) attended the first #6DegreesBRLN event on November 12, 2018. We got to know the ICC throughout 2018 – during our annual Study Trip last September, we were given the opportunity to see the ICC’s Toronto […]

Der Beitrag 6DegreesBRLN – An Inclusive Society is no Utopian Dream erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
Having been invited by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC), several members of the Young Transatlantic Initiative (YTI / IjT) attended the first #6DegreesBRLN event on November 12, 2018. We got to know the ICC throughout 2018 – during our annual Study Trip last September, we were given the opportunity to see the ICC’s Toronto office where we were given first-hand information on both the concept and organizational details of #6Degrees, an event series, by ICC staff.

Thus, we were aware of the setting that #6Degrees events are placed into – experiencing the event, however, is much more impressive. Participants get the impression that the 360° stage invites every audience member to interact. The presence of various mobile mics emphasized this impression. A high number of those present seized the opportunity to actively participate in the discussions held, rendering nearly all attendants active participants.

Given the fact that it was a very diverse audience that saw many attendants finish distant journeys at the Barenboim-Said Academy, #6DegreesBRLN continuously gained depth and detail. Several times the various speakers came back to audience questions or had further questions for audience members, thereby enabling attendants to influence the event by shifting the focus to topics of particular interest.

Still, the inevitable question posed to YTI members prior to the event was what could justify spending a whole day that would otherwise constitute the beginning of a work or university week getting informed on an inclusive society by a Canadian organization.

In his research, Phil Triadafilopoulos (University of Toronto – Scarborough) comes back to the same conclusion over and over again: Canada today is what Germany will be in 50 years. To many of those who have visited Canada already, this thought may not seem convincing, especially given a comparison of the infrastructure and size of these countries. Those who not only look at economic but rather at social factors will see that this theory is far from being outlandish. Canada has been and is still a country depending on migration.

Many observers state the same about Germany where a society is challenged with integrating a significant number of migrants – regardless of whether or not their presence in Germany is supposed to be permanent. Taking advantage of learning about the “Canadian way” of handling migration is, thus, a smart decision.

For this reason, #6Degrees’ agenda in Berlin was ideal. A possible path from “where we stand” to “where we go” was presented and “next steps” were discussed. Given the number of internationally well-known expert speakers such as Ai Weiwei, Bernhard Schlink, or Adrienne Clarkson who participated in the event, the content of individual panels was discussed on a very adept level, rendering the event valuable for every participant.

All these panels made clear that the German society has already started walking down the path to more inclusivity and integration. Still, the path is long and no halfway point has been passed by yet. That shows that an inclusive society is much less of an utopian dream than it is hard work.

Within the academy, discussions were held on a rather abstract and scientific level. That being so, best practice examples were discussed outside the official talks only. This might, however, be due to the duration of the event. While #6Degrees in Toronto is held annually over the course of three days, the Berlin version was restricted to one day so far.

At the same time, even the one-day format carries and unfolds a lot of potential for future events of this kind in Germany and Europe as a whole – an indicator for this is the very high number of participants who decided to join the interactive discussions. These discussions could prove valuable within the German society. We are looking forward to another day of #6DegreesBRLN next year in order to participate once more in a format that continues dialogues between Germany and Canada, but also within Germany.

Der Beitrag 6DegreesBRLN – An Inclusive Society is no Utopian Dream erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2018/12/10/6degreesbrln-an-inclusive-society-is-no-utopian-dream/feed/ 0
2018 Midterms: The President as Campaign Supporter https://yti-us.org/2018/08/02/2018-midterms-the-president-as-campaign-supporter/ https://yti-us.org/2018/08/02/2018-midterms-the-president-as-campaign-supporter/#respond Thu, 02 Aug 2018 17:45:40 +0000 https://yti-us.org/?p=400 Just over a month ago, I was discussing the question of whether Democrats would be able to remain in the lead which exists according to pollsters regarding the midterm elections taking place on November 6, 2018. In early August of 2018, Democrats maintain a generic congressional vote advantage of 6.9% on average over Republicans. A […]

Der Beitrag 2018 Midterms: The President as Campaign Supporter erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
Just over a month ago, I was discussing the question of whether Democrats would be able to remain in the lead which exists according to pollsters regarding the midterm elections taking place on November 6, 2018. In early August of 2018, Democrats maintain a generic congressional vote advantage of 6.9% on average over Republicans.

A different picture emerges when looking at the gradual narrowing of the gap between the two major parties in the United States since December 2017: At that time, 49.1% of potential voters said they wanted to vote for Democrats in their respective constituencies, while only 36.1% wanted to vote for Republicans.

Varying Compositions Influence Results

While surveys are increasingly subject to criticism in Germany, the initial situation in the United States is already different. For example, various institutes refer to registered voters as their sample – among them, 33% identify themselves as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. On the other hand, only 29% consider themselves Democrats and 27% Republicans in telephone surveys.

Given that on an average 32% of the electorate voted Republican and 34% Democratic in the last four presidential elections, it is evident that results change as the composition of the survey changes. In addition, midterm polls are generally less precise, which is particularly due to the fact that polls closer to the midterms are conducted more frequently by partisan organizations, thus confirming possible advantages for the supported candidate.

Returning to the initial question: Things are still looking good for the Democrats as their generic ballot advantage over the Republicans has been increasing again in recent weeks. At one point, results were almost even. The “blue wave” has, thus, not broken, if one looks at the United States as a whole.

As of now, the Republican Majority is Already Thin

However, a closer look reveals that the midterms could produce an advantageous result for either side. While Democrats are reporting an increasing influx to their internal primaries, Republicans are starting from a position of relative strength, especially in the House of Representatives. The majority they have held in the house since 2011 has been retained throughout the 2012, 2014 and 2016 elections. This majority is also a more pronounced electoral mandate than it was during the majority period between 1995 and 2007.

Especially in Democratic primaries, the number of voters is on the rise – (C) Pew Research Center

Rather than the House of Representatives, the future composition of the Senate is a major problem for the Republicans. With a majority of only one vote and several senators who do not align themselves in various ways with the President (such as Sen. John McCain) or the rest of their caucus (Sen. Rand Paul), it is already unclear as of now to what extent legislative acts sought by the President will still have a chance of implementation.

Based on surveys aggregated by RealClearPolitics, only seven seats in the Senate remain undecided. Three of these seats would have to be won by Republicans to retain their thin majority. Geographical distance and fundamental differences to the US electoral system in particular lead to a generally rough overview of the American situation in Germany.

Decision Between President and Party

This situation is indeed interesting and uncertain, even when it comes to senators known in Europe, such as Sen. Ted Cruz, the Republican Senator from Texas who ran in the 2016 presidential primaries and was temporarily seen as a potential Supreme Court Justice. Long considered the top dog in Texas, Cruz is, on average, only 6% ahead of his challenger Beto O’Rourke, who has been representing his Texan constituency in the House since 2013. At times, this lead has already shrunk to 2%.

The President’s views, sometimes differing from the Republican Party average, lead to a struggle in which Republican candidates come under pressure to choose between the party line and the President. The efforts made by the President to support candidates in the primary elections do not ease the challenges. However, the power of the President should not be underestimated: Despite an ex-governor, several senators and a dozen other Republicans in favor of his intra-party rivals, President Trump’s endorsement was enough to secure Corey Stewart in Virginia the nomination for the Senate election.

Successful Lame Duck?

The area of tension between the President and Republican members of Congress lead to a situation in the run-up to the November 6 elections in which some German voices are – some of them hopeful – discussing the end of the Trump system or, at least, a defeat in both chambers. Doubts may be cast as to whether this scenario will occur – the fact that President Ronald Reagan never had a majority in the House of Representatives speaks for itself.

In the last two years of his presidency, Reagan’s Republicans had lost the majority in both chambers. Nevertheless, Reagan succeeded not only in nominating a Supreme Court judge as a lame duck – even before that, he was required to uphold a fiscally conservative agenda against the political heavyweight Tip O’Neill, his opponent in the House of Representatives.

Even a change in power in Congress will not lead to any major changes in US foreign policy – even domestic policy could follow the example of Reagan and O’Neill: within six years, eight government shutdowns with a total duration of two weeks took place. Despite Reagan’s poor starting position, the president with no House gathered enough decision-making power to perpetuate himself as one of the most popular presidents of the United States. Things will remain suspenseful until 6 November – and beyond.

Der Beitrag 2018 Midterms: The President as Campaign Supporter erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2018/08/02/2018-midterms-the-president-as-campaign-supporter/feed/ 0
Of Freeloaders and Trumpists https://yti-us.org/2018/07/21/of-freeloaders-and-trumpists/ https://yti-us.org/2018/07/21/of-freeloaders-and-trumpists/#respond Sat, 21 Jul 2018 08:43:54 +0000 https://yti-us.org/?p=397 What would be left, would the United States put its ideas into action and reduce its involvement in NATO? Four years ago, at the NATO summit in Wales, President Obama indicated that he wanted to see an increase in commitment from the Western defense alliance’s European member states in the years to come. In figures, […]

Der Beitrag Of Freeloaders and Trumpists erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
What would be left, would the United States put its ideas into action and reduce its involvement in NATO? Four years ago, at the NATO summit in Wales, President Obama indicated that he wanted to see an increase in commitment from the Western defense alliance’s European member states in the years to come. In figures, the agreement reached requires all Member States to move towards defense spending equivalent to two percent of GDP.
Since then, the ambiguous formulation of the target has led to discussions as to whether 2% of GDP will actually have to be spent at the end of the ten-year period introduced in 2014 or whether mere adjustments will suffice. In the case of Germany, this discussion is superfluous, as defense spending even decreased in relative terms between 2016 and 2017.

Decreased U.S. commitment would prove disadvantageous for Europe

This development is symbolized by recurring reports not only by scientists but also by the troops themselves, according to whom defensive capability cannot be assumed in a real crisis. With four operational fighter aircraft, no NATO mission of any kind can be backed. For a better understanding of the figure: Germany has agreed to provide up to 82 aircraft for the alliance. Four Eurofighter aircraft – that is less than Austria has on standby at all times.
Against this background, it comes as no surprise when the US government under President Trump suggests that reduced engagement within NATO is imaginable. Although from the President’s point of view, this position may also be understandable in view of the low level of support for NATO and the duty of assistance associated with membership, Europeans have no interest in such a solution, which is rather equivalent to dissolution.
The United States’ continued renewal of the security guarantee for Europe as a result of its involvement in NATO will remain the foundation of European security cooperation in the short and medium terms. Initiatives such as PESCO are very welcome and complement the security architecture – but they will not change the fundamental unwillingness to spend more resources on the security of Europe’s borders.
The fact that even after having made promises of increased individual defence budgets in 2014, European NATO members failed to give those allies closer to Russia a sense of security is also reflected in the increased presence of American forces in Eastern Europe, for which $4.8 billion are currently being spent – an amount that will be increased by another 35% in 2019. The target sum of $6.5 billion corresponds to the total defense budget of NATO’s eleven smallest states.

America first does not mean America alone – but this becomes harder to convey

Despite all the justified criticism from Washington, however, it should also be noted that defense expenditures – even in Germany – are increasing in absolute figures. Any budgetary increase seems to cost legislative effort and voter confidence. As of today, Germany is facing a situation in which Russia is trusted by more people than the United States. The rhetoric that is no longer based in part on consensus among members will not change this situation. As a result of these verbal exchanges of blows, engagement within NATO is increasingly doubted – this is hardly surprising when allies are treated in a completely different way from one day to the other.
The President’s policy on security is clear. It is synonymous with European security and with continued strong cooperation between Europe and the United States. America first, after all, does not mean America alone. However, this fact is becoming increasingly difficult to convey.
Anyone who tries to do so is quickly treated as a supporter of the President – although the vast majority of those who agree with the 2018 president in terms of defense policy would have opposed the 2016 candidate. A strong commitment to defense cooperation is not a question of presidents, it is a question of right or wrong, secure or insecure.
It takes courage and conviction to stand up and – partly in defiance of the President’s inconsiderate remarks – to promote continued strong defense cooperation. Of course, it is right to question the choice of words when the European Union is described as a foe. Equally as important is putting them into context.

Put an end to the freeloading in defense policy!

In the Euro-American context, statements made by a President, Chancellor or Minister never stand by themselves. Although they are of great importance, they are first and foremost part of a larger picture formed by millions of tourists, business people, students, families and of course interested supporters of the trans-Atlantic relationship based on a historical framework that will link Europe and North America for all time.
Ignoring statements such as those about the latest NATO partner, Montenegro, is not the solution. In fact, many a piece of porcelain is at risk of breakage. Mutual trust is shrinking. However, it is up to both sides to rebuild this trust. In a relationship in which Brussels, Berlin and Washington highlight each other’s mistakes, it is time to highlight joint successes and to resolve problems. There is only one solution to the problem of free-riding in defense policy, and it must be tackled. As early as possible and as courageously as possible.


Lukas Posch serves as President of the Young Transatlantic Initiative. This article describes his personal point of view, which is not necessarily the point of view shared by the Young Transatlantic Initiative.

Der Beitrag Of Freeloaders and Trumpists erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2018/07/21/of-freeloaders-and-trumpists/feed/ 0
YTI at the Munich Security Conference 2018 https://yti-us.org/2018/02/20/yti-at-the-munich-security-conference-2018/ https://yti-us.org/2018/02/20/yti-at-the-munich-security-conference-2018/#respond Tue, 20 Feb 2018 21:31:14 +0000 https://yti-us.org/?p=391 The world order is facing major changes and factors once considered constant disappear. The Munich Security Conference, bringing more than 500 deciders, experts and observers together in its 54th year at the Bavarian state capital’s ‘Bayerischer Hof’ hotel, forms an exception in this regard. In fact, the “end of history”, considered near some years ago, […]

Der Beitrag YTI at the Munich Security Conference 2018 erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
The world order is facing major changes and factors once considered constant disappear. The Munich Security Conference, bringing more than 500 deciders, experts and observers together in its 54th year at the Bavarian state capital’s ‘Bayerischer Hof’ hotel, forms an exception in this regard. In fact, the “end of history”, considered near some years ago, seems to be as far away as in the 1980s.

Smoldering conflicts such as the one between Russia on one side and the United States and Europe on the other side are being led in many ways. The conflict characterized by sanctions is to be considered an exception to the rule, though – instead, open combat plays the dominant role in disputes within and between nations.

More than a dozen members of the Young Transatlantic Initiative thus decided to participate in the Initiative’s program within the 2018 MSC’s framework. While last year’s program was characterized especially by background talks on geopolitics and economic cooperation, the focus has been set more concretely in 2018.

Public Side Event in Cooperation with the Munich Security Conference

Johann Wadephul Ph.D. MdB, Bruce McConnell, Lukas Posch (from left)

For the first time, the Initiative held a public side event in official cooperation with the Munich Security Conference. Together with Johann Wadephul PhD, Deputy Chairman of the CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus responsible for foreign and defense affairs, and Bruce McConnell, Global Vice President of EastWest Institute and former Deputy Under Secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, the audience discussed the future of transatlantic cooperation presented by Lukas Posch, President of the Young Transatlantic Initiative. The talk was live-streamed over the Internet helped gain additional members of the audience as well as interest in the Initiative.

Besides the public event held on Saturday, the participants had the opportunity to attend a background talk with the publicist and former editor-in-chief of Wirtschaftswoche Roland Tichy. Tichy’s viewpoints towards German politics came across large response and led to an animated discussion about topics such as the Federal Republic’s role within the European Union.

In addition to the talks hosted by the Young Transatlantic Initiative, members participated in events by the Munich Security Conference, German Atlantic Treaty Association, Hanns Seidel Foundation, University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich and the Young Forum of the Foreign Policy Association.

Talk with Publicist Roland Tichy

With the security conference passed, the issues of the present remain unsolved – still, the dialogue between deciders indicates that encounters are the first step towards détente. In the coming year, the Young Transatlantic Initiative will host another event weekend in the Munich Security Conference’s framework and, thus, continue the young tradition – this encompasses the growing size of events as well. Are you interested in arranging events with us? We’re looking forward to your interest!

We cordially express our thanks to Amerikahaus München e.V. as well as Osborne Clarke for making it possible to use the association’s and firm’s spaces respectively. Furthermore, we would like to thank our cooperation partners who have made it possible for our members to participate thanks to generous attendance contingents.

Der Beitrag YTI at the Munich Security Conference 2018 erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2018/02/20/yti-at-the-munich-security-conference-2018/feed/ 0
Establishing Understanding for the Transatlantic Partnership https://yti-us.org/2017/06/26/establishing-understanding-for-the-transatlantic-partnership/ https://yti-us.org/2017/06/26/establishing-understanding-for-the-transatlantic-partnership/#respond Mon, 26 Jun 2017 20:42:43 +0000 http://yti-us.org/?p=300 More than forty members of the Young Transatlantic Initiative (YTI) attended the annual convention which took place right outside Berlin in Oranienburg on the weekend between June 9 and June 11, 2017. Besides talks and ideas on how to deepen transatlantic relations in tumultuous times, the election of a new board formed the key event […]

Der Beitrag Establishing Understanding for the Transatlantic Partnership erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
More than forty members of the Young Transatlantic Initiative (YTI) attended the annual convention which took place right outside Berlin in Oranienburg on the weekend between June 9 and June 11, 2017. Besides talks and ideas on how to deepen transatlantic relations in tumultuous times, the election of a new board formed the key event of the convivial assembly.

Many of the members – among them especially the ones with a longer route – met for dinner on Friday night already. This meant an opportunity to make new friends and to spend an evening among kindred spirits. Oranienburg’s calm was countered by a wonderful atmosphere that made clear already on the evening before the convention that, besides work done together, fun would not fall short.
The day of the convention started early – not only was there a revised version of the bylaws, there were elections to the board as well. The unanimously passed revision’s objective is the preparation of the registration of the non-profit status of our Initiative. In the following talk, the acting board consisting of Messrs. Jonas Emmerich, David Stock, Tim Segler, Mirko Vossen, and Robin Arens were given thanks by the members present for their work done over the last years. During Mr. Emmerich’s period of administration, the Initiative grew significantly and increased its social media appearance.
Mr. Christian Soeder and Mr. Lukas Posch stood for election to succeed Mr. Emmerich in the role of the Initiative’s president. The members’ vote saw Mr. Posch elected as president, he will be joined by the new members of the board, Ms. Chantal Austgen, and Ms. Inger-Luise Heilmann. Mr. Vossen and Mr. Arens will remain vice president and treasurer, respectively. May they do well in their new tasks!
Following the election process, the members’ discussion indicated that the new board will have adequate opportunities to show their activity as it became clear that especially the last months’ events led to our work on behalf of the transatlantic partnership becoming increasingly confronted with lowered understanding. To face this problem, the new board stated their willingness to increase the number of events organized in cooperation with the regional groups.
Before the official part of the convention came to a close, members were interestedly listening to Mr. Dimitrij Kwascha talking about his studies in California and his impressions of the U.S. startup culture. Following the talk, the group headed for Berlin where tables were already prepared in a downtown brewery.
The new board met as early as Sunday morning to set priorities that will be worked on over the coming weeks and months. We are convinced that, at the task-filled list’s end, there is an Initiative waiting which encourages its members to participate even stronger and which shows that the German-American partnership is exceptional. Exceptional, and existing on so many more layers than just the political.
We thank all participants and the convention’s organizational committee which consisted of Ms. Anna Lehné, Ms. Chantal Austgen, Mr. Sven Winter and Mr. Lukas Posch. See you next time!

Der Beitrag Establishing Understanding for the Transatlantic Partnership erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2017/06/26/establishing-understanding-for-the-transatlantic-partnership/feed/ 0
Understanding the Crossroads of America https://yti-us.org/2017/06/26/understanding-the-crossroads-of-america/ https://yti-us.org/2017/06/26/understanding-the-crossroads-of-america/#respond Mon, 26 Jun 2017 20:35:26 +0000 http://yti-us.org/?p=297 While political pundits and the media focused on large cities on both coasts of the United States, they ignored the region that led to Donald J. Trump’s victory on November 8, 2016. From August 27, 2017, we invite you to participate in our expedition through the heartland left behind! Did the outcome of the recent […]

Der Beitrag Understanding the Crossroads of America erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
While political pundits and the media focused on large cities on both coasts of the United States, they ignored the region that led to Donald J. Trump’s victory on November 8, 2016. From August 27, 2017, we invite you to participate in our expedition through the heartland left behind!

U.S. Capitol – Photo by Kevin McCoy


Did the outcome of the recent presidential elections surprise you? Did you find yourself wondering what is actually going on in the states that turned red for the first time in decades last November? So did we. That is why we think it is right about time to explore the states that were considered “flyover states” for the last years. Touring Washington, D.C., Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois, we want to gain insights into the people, their cities, and their economies in order to find out what made the Rust Belt a region disregarded by many.
Consider yourself pioneers – while the United States is full of political pundits and scientists, only a few focus on the fate of the landscape once nicknamed the “Manufacturing Belt” before the decade-long economic decline commenced. Together with local politicians, companies, and political scientists, we will broaden our horizons and discover regions that can be considered mere shadows of their former selves – and we will hear about local solutions for problems found all across the region.
The United States forms a multitude of regions which are different in many regards, and we think that the best way of showing you this is by touring cities that could not be more different. Thus, participation in our study trip will not only give you the opportunity to see famous metropolitan urban areas such as Washington, D.C. and Chicago, IL. In discovering cities such as Pittsburgh, PA, Cleveland, OH, Detroit, MI, and Indianapolis, IN, we invite you to see different approaches to reinventing cities and overcoming structural issues.
Join us in expanding our understanding in political, cultural and economic regards and become part of a team of twenty young people touring the Crossroads of America together!


Timetable and Destinations

The study trip will take place from Saturday, August 27, to Saturday, September 9, 2017. Please be advised that we do not provide travels to and from the United States – make the most of it by touring the region on your own before and after our trip!

Sunset in Pittsburgh – Photo by Andy T.


August 27 – August 29: Washington, D.C.
August 30 – September 1: Pittsburgh, PA
September 2 – September 3: Cleveland, OH
September 4 – September 6: Detroit, MI
September 7 – September 8: Indianapolis, IN
September 9: Chicago, IL
Travels between our destinations will be done through buses. To offer you the best experience in touring cities while avoiding long bus trips, the trips will have a maximum duration of four hours each.


Accommodation and Costs

We are currently in the progress of finalizing the remaining bookings for Indianapolis, IN, and Chicago, IL. Accommodation is included in the participation fee and is currently set at well-rated four-star hotels.
The total participation fee is set at $800 per participant and includes all accommodation costs, transportation costs between cities and a flat amount of $100 used for transportation within cities. For conversion purposes, our calculations are based on an amount of €750. In case the total costs of the trip will, due to changes in the conversion rate, sink, we reimburse the difference of the assessed participation fee and the real costs.


Registration and Questions

You want to sign up for the study trip or have questions about the program? Unsure whether our study trip is worth your vacation time? Suggestions on what to do in the group’s spare time? Our study trip team is happy to help! Contact us at:
Lukas Posch
President
lukas.posch@junge-transatlantiker.de

Der Beitrag Understanding the Crossroads of America erschien zuerst auf Young Transatlantic Initiative.

]]>
https://yti-us.org/2017/06/26/understanding-the-crossroads-of-america/feed/ 0